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Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH Confirms Cyprus Ratings at ‘BB+’

Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH Confirms Cyprus Ratings at ‘BB+’

Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH confirmed the sovereign government credit rating (SGC) of Cyprus at ‘BB+’ (Sufficient level of creditworthiness of the government) in national currency and at ‘BB+’ (Sufficient level of creditworthiness of the government) in foreign currency.

Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH confirmed the country credit environment rating (CCE) of Cyprus at ‘BB+’ (Sufficient quality of credit environment of the country) in national currency and at ‘BB+’ (Sufficient quality of credit environment of the country) in foreign currency.


Positive factors:
The debt structure improved further in 2017. Short-term debt amounted to 1% of GDP and 2,7% of budget revenues and represented only 1% of the total debt as of end-2017. Additionally, only 4% is issued in foreign currencies and 64% is in the form of official loans. However, the floating interest rate debt is slightly high and accounted for 46% of the total debt load by the end of 2017;
The fiscal stance improved in 2017 posting a surplus of 1,5% of GDP according to the Ministry of Finance. This surplus is mostly driven by an increase in tax collection and social security contributions, while on the expenditure side the subsidies declined. We expect further improvement of the fiscal stance driven by strong economic growth as well as the government’s commitment to a tight fiscal policy;
The country’s macro profile is encouraging as GDP per capita at PPP is projected to have remained solid at USD 36 600 and real GDP continued to grow by a robust 3,8% as of year- end 2017 (2,8% in 2016). The positive output dynamics remained driven by tourism, retail, construction and manufacturing;
High level of institutional development as Cyprus ranked 53rd out of 190 countries in the Doing Business ranking (45th in the previous report). Additionally, it has a very high Human Development Index (adjusted for inequality) at 0,762;
According to the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators, Cyprus is ranked 75th out of 214 territories in the Rule of Law Index which indicates a moderately strong confidence in contract enforcement, property rights, the police and the courts;
Net inflows of FDI in Cyprus amounted to 25% of GDP as of 2016 which is much higher compared to its peer countries1 (2,4% on average in 2016).
Restricting factors:
We expect private credit to GDP to have dropped further in 2017 to around 240% of GDP, compared to 266% by end-2016. All loan segments, including households, corporates and financial institutions followed a downward trend. Also, the banks’ assets to GDP ratio was estimated at around 360% in 2017 compared to 376% in 2016, but still remains the highest among its euro peers;
The unemployment rate continued to decline and reached 11% as of end-2017 remaining below its peers’ average. We expect this figure to continue its gradual decline driven by economic growth, particularly by the increase in private consumption;
Government guarantees stood at around 9,1% of GDP as of end-2016 compared to 15,4%
in 2015, which slightly reduced the risks associated to contingent liabilities;
The annual y-o-y inflation turned to negative ground in 2017 and stood at -0,4%. In line with the IMF, we still expect inflation to turn to positive territory over 2018 mostly driven by increases in prices of commodities, food, transportation and the tourism sector;
The Cypriot economy remains diversified but still highly focused in the services sector. As of 2017, the industry distribution in the three largest sectors was as follows: retail (21%), financial (10%) and real estate (9%);
The economy is moderately competitive. Cyprus is ranked 64th out of 137 countries in the Global Competitiveness Index report (2017-2018) prepared by the World Economic Forum (83rd in the previous ranking). Moreover, the trade balance widened to -2% of GDP in 2017 compared to -0,8 in 2016;
Despite  government  efforts  to  continue  with  the  privatization  program,  the  overall process remains delayed, shown by the recent parliament initiative to pass the law for scrapping the privatization unit within the Ministry of Finance. However, the government is still determined to go forward with privatization plans in order to further reduce the debt burden.
Negative factors:
The government debt level improved better than we anticipated in our previous revision.
As of end-2017, it stood at around EUR 18,7 bn, the lowest level since 2014. Additionally, supported by a robust GDP growth of 3,8% in 2017, the debt to GDP ratio declined to around 100% as of end-2017 compared to 106% in 2Q 2017 and still stands below the average level of debt among its euro peer countries. Even though we expect a continued decline of this metric in the following years boosted by GDP growth and fiscal surpluses, the still high level of government indebtedness remains a key negative factor;
The banking system continued its recovery through 2017. NPLs declined further as a share of total loans and stood at 43,7% as of November 2017 compared to 47% by end-2016, but remain substantially high. The profitability worsened as compared to 2016, with ROA standing at -1,3% by September 2017. Nevertheless, the banking sector is still well capitalized with capital to assets ratio at 9% and overall solvency ratio at 16,2% as reported by the Central Bank of Cyprus as of September 2017;
FX reserves continued to decline in absolute terms and stood at around 3,3% of gross government debt as of December 2017 and covered only half a month of imports in December 2016. Nonetheless, we do not expect this to affect the economy in case of a currency shock since most of their trade is done within the EU;
The stock market remains underdeveloped with 80 listed companies as of December 2017 (74 in January 2017). Furthermore, market capitalization stood at EUR 2,3bn (12,5% of GDP).
Support factors:
Participation in a strong currency and political union. Cyprus is part of the European
Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) since 2004 (moderately strong support factor);
The country has a very strong and important reserve currency (EUR) (moderately weak support factor).
Stress factors:
Dependence on partner-countries for provision of financial support in crisis situations has decreased since Cyprus left the three-year economic adjustment program European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year (weak stress factor).
Positive factors:
Narrow spread between interest rates on loans and deposits at 2,8% as of December 2017 (3,12% in 2016 and 3,52% in 2015).
Restricting factors:
The Cyprus Stock Exchange General Index (CYSMMAPA) was stable in 2017 starting the year at 68,4 points in January and standing at 69,5 points as of December 2017.
Negative factors:
Marginal  quality  and  quantity  of  instruments  offered  in  the  financial  market  of  the country;
Private sector debt (domestic and external), despite declining over the years, remains extremely high at around 706% of GDP in 3Q 2017 (734,5% in 2016).
The following developments could lead to an upgrade:
Further improvement of the debt metrics driven by fiscal surpluses and solid GDP growth with declining unemployment and consolidation of the current account;
Reduction of NPLs ratio and further decline of private and external debt metrics. The following developments could lead to a downgrade:
GDP growth lower than anticipated which will result in higher debt levels and widening the current account deficit;
A  rebound  trend  of  NPLs  dynamics  followed  by  deterioration  of  the  banking  sector metrics.


“The Agency’s confirmation of the ratings of Cyprus at BB+ reflects better than anticipated GDP growth, a positive fiscal balance and, despite remaining the key risk for the economy, a slight improvement of the banking system metrics. Additionally, the government debt level declined further and we expect it to continue in a downward trend in the following years driven by GDP growth and expected fiscal surpluses. Finally, the level of unemployment is at new record low since the 2013 crisis. We could upgrade the rating in our next revision, if positive factors continue with the current trend and the negative variables improve further.” - Clarified Marko Denic, Rating Analyst of Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH.”


Research report on Cyprus is available at:

Next scheduled rating publication: 5 October 2018. The full sovereign rating calendar can be found at




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Greece And Cyprus Address Challenges Through International Law, House President Says After Meeting With Greek PM
Cyprus Trade Deficit Accelerates To €3.55 Billion According To Provisional Data
Government Employment Rises Due To Temporary Employees
Cyprus Cabinet Approves Visa Waiver Agreement With Bahrain
Evergrande Misses 3rd Round Of Bond Coupon Payments, Intensifying Contagion Fears
Venus Minerals And Hellenic Copper Mines To Join Forces For Development Of The Apliki Mine
In Cyprus 88% Of Adults Say They Use The Internet Daily, Compared To 80% In The EU
Infocredit Group Sets The Standards In Legal Research With LexisLibrary
Agriculture Council Of The EU Discusses Support To Livestock Farmers, Fisheries, Turkish Actions In The Aegean
President Anastasiades Pledges Full Support To Shipping Industry
IMF Revises Upwards Its Forecasts For Growth Of The Cypriot Economy
Defence Minister Calls On Companies And Young Researchers To Show Interest In EU Defence Projects
Grant Thornton Cyprus: Team Bonding Event
Energy Security Dominates EU-Ukraine Summit, As Prices Continue To Surge
PwC Announces Global Revenues Of US$45 Billion
We Stand At A Critical Juncture, FM Says Of Global Challenges, Sees Endless Opportunities For Cooperation
CySEC Promotes Basic Investor Education
President Asks Merkel To Exert Pressure For Resumption Of Cyprus Talks
Pelekanos: Government Exhausting All Means To Put An End To Illegal Actions Of Turkey And T/C Side
State-Owned KEDIPES Cash Collections Exceed €1 Billion After Three Years Of Operation
LA Port To Open Round The Clock To Tackle Shipping Queues
Creative Women International Platform Exclusive Networking Event
ESG Principles Set The Scene For Sustainable Finance
Agriculture Minister To Issue Decree For The Accumulation Of 4% Reserves In Grain By March 2022
We Need To Maintain Adequate Connectivity For All, Transport Minister Tells ICAO Conference
GOLD New Issue: The 9th Annual Invest Cyprus International Investment Awards
Cyprus Aspires To Become A Regional Hub For Science And Technology Companies
Government Concerned Over Price Increases And Looking To Prevent Economy Risks
Tourist Inflow In The Winter Season Through Scheduled Flights, Says Perdios
Cyprus And Egypt To Sign Electricity Interconnection MoU
China Coal Prices Hit Record Highs, Early Winter Chill Adds To Energy Woes
Skandalis: Compliance Is The Key Catalyst To Restarting The Economy The Right Way
FMs Of Cyprus And Russia To Hold Talks In Moscow On October 21
FM Christodoulides Travels To Luxembourg, Turkish Illegal Activities In Varosha On The Agenda
Efforts For A Just And Viable Solution To The Cyprus Issue Must Continue, Says House President
Philippos Soseilos Elected As The New CEO Of PwC Cyprus
Alphamega Hypermarkets Rewards Customers With MasterChef Products
Techisland Welcomes The Approved Incentive Package For Attracting Companies In Cyprus
Trilateral Summit Between Greece, Cyprus And Egypt Takes Place In Athens On Tuesday
Facebook Plans To Hire 10,000 In EU To Build 'Metaverse'
President Anastasiades And British High Commissioner Discuss Cyprus Problem And Turkish Provocations
Cyprus Finance Minister Presents Budget To House Committee, Talks About Recovery
FM Travels To Budapest, EEZ And Varosha On The Agenda
The Greece-Cyprus-Egypt Trilateral Summit To Be Held In Athens Tuesday
Eurostat: 17.6% Of Cypriots Were At Risk Of Poverty And Social Exclusion In 2020
Cyprus' High Commissioner To South Africa Presents His Credentials To President Ramaphosa
Apple Doubles Down On Chip Strategy With New Premium-Priced MacBooks
Fail Whilst Trying To Change The World
Road Safety Week 2021: Let’s Not Let Our Dreams Fall Apart!
Central Bank Reports Slowdown In The Price Of Houses, Apartment Prices Go Up
Cyber Security Conference
Εastmed And Mideast Region Needs To Work Together To Tackle Climate Crisis, Prof. Sachs Tells CNA
A Two-State Cyprus Solution Is Unacceptable, Mitsotakis-Anastasiades Say
Trilateral Summit Aimed At Strengthening Ties And Tackling Challenges In The Region, Egypt Says
Strict Or Flexible? Brussels Kicks Off Debate To Reform Fiscal Rules
New Collaboration Between KEAN Trading And Kouroushis Dairies
Greek Cypriot Side Focused On The Resumption Of The Negotiations, House President Tells Israeli Ambassador
Cypriot And Russian FMs To Discuss Cyprus Problem And Turkish Provocations On Thursday
S&P Affirms RCB Bank’s “BB-” Rating With Stable Outlook
EY: Conditions Are Ripe For Rapid Growth In Renewables Generation, Inadequate Grid Investments May Be A Major Challenge
The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI)
Finance Minister Says Green And Digital Transition To Revamp Economy In Cyprus
Cyprus Chief Scientist Promoted Cyprus As A Regional Research And Innovation Hub In Dubai
Tourist Arrivals In Cyprus Up By 153.7% Annually In First Nine Months Of 2021
UK And New Zealand Strike Free Trade Deal
Construction Materials Prices Up By Nearly 15% Annually This September
Consumer Prices Harmonised Index Up By 3.6% Annually In September, Down By 0.5% Monthly
Annual Inflation Rate At 3.6% In Cyprus And At The EU Level, At 3.4% In The Eurozone
iSPIRAL Participated In The ATHEX Innovation Program
12th Limassol Economic Forum
Attorney General Discusses Cancelled Cyprus Investment Programme With Reynders
P5 Must Deal With Ankara’s Discredit Of The UNSC Decisions, Says FM
Cyprus And India Reaffirm Potential For Further Cooperation On Many Sectors
President Anastasiades To Inform European Council On Turkey's Actions, Measures Against Rising Energy Prices, Migration
Cyprus Trade Deficit Up By 23% Year On Year In January – July 2021
Presidential Commissioner Meets German Ambassador To Cyprus
Deputy Ministry Of Tourism Updated The Website Delightfulcyprus
Survey Vessel 'Nautical Geo' In Block 1 Of Cyprus' EEZ
Underwater And Beach Clean-Up From Melco And Agios Athanasios-Germasogeia Municipalities
Need To Accelerate Efforts To Deal With Climate Change, Central Bank Governor Says
Rapid Adaptation Must Be Core Of Our Collective Response, Fiscal Council Chairman Says
Financial Literacy A Key Element For A Well-Functioning Economic System, Central Bank Governor Says
Harris Kyriakides Celebrates 45 Years Of Successful Operations