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Ira Kalish: Global Economy Trends to Disrupt the Business World

Ira Kalish: Global Economy Trends to Disrupt the Business World

Ira Kalish, Chief Global Economist, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd, spoke at the 10th Limassol Economic Forum about the latest trends in the global economy.

According to Kalish, USA has started to turn inwards which is a threat to the global system. The US withdraws from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, imposes tariffs, undermines the WTO, threatens of imposing new tariffs as well as restrictions on capital flow, bans some Chinese technologies and imposes restrictions on immigration which causes an atmosphere of uncertainty.

This uncertainty, says Kalish, has a chilling effect on investment. Tariffs boost consumer prices and costs for manufacturers and supply chains are disrupted which results in a slowdown in the global economy. The longer-term challenge is to have a global rules-based system, global alliances and cooperation as well as political integration.

Besides a potential recession risk in Europe and the US, Ira Kalish points out that there are longer-term issues to be considered such as demographics. An aging population means slower economic growth, lower inflation, lower borrowing costs and difficulty in funding pensions and healthcare while possible solutions involve higher taxes, longer working lives and more immigration. He further mentioned that China’s shifting demographics cause a declining surplus which leads to a rebalance of the global economy.

Kalish added that longer-term issues also include disruptive technological change. Technology will boost productivity but will also disrupt the labour market. After manufacturing, other industries are expected to experience disruption and skills imbalance will exacerbate inequality and populist backlash. Although STEM disciplines are needed, these jobs will be disrupted and this will lead to a greater need for skills involving communication, empathy, managing people and innovation.

 

 

 

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